Methodologies

NRG Expert is setting a new standard in authoritative forecasting in the energy industry, a consequence of a robust approach to data collection and analysis that removes the need for “intelligent guess-work”.

In forecasting we work to six principles:

  • To predict the future, you must have a thorough knowledge of the past. The way in which infrastructure has developed in the past will influence the requirements of the future.
  • The nature of future demand is as important as the scale of demand. We refer to “Asset Base Renewal”, that part of the market that represents demand for product and materials for the renewal of existing infrastructure, but not necessarily an increase in the capacity of an infrastructure as new build would. Annual demand can grow while the installed base is static or decreases.
  • Socio-demographic trends are a key influencer on energy demand and the consequent requirement for infrastructure. We reflect these trends in our forecasts. Key among these is the process of household electrification, which can be a fundamental catalyst for demand.
  • To accurately measure the current size of a market (the starting point for future growth), top down analysis must be checked against bottom up analysis, and vice versa.
  • Our datasets are never complete; we consider them to be living entities. We collate new data on an on-going basis to ensure we continue to be at the leading edge of the sector.
  • Where data is in short supply, we do not guess. Instead, we provide reasoned arguments based on knowledge of comparable cases.

    • NRG Expert has built up several separate forecasts of different components and aspects of the global energy market. This collection of separate forecasts is valuable in providing validation of each forecast.

    On December 12, 2014   /   2-Minute Briefing